A Win on Both Price and Convenience

A few forward-thinking retailers have adopted predictive analytics in their loyalty programs. Among the few to use this tool today are Sam’s Club, CVS and Kroger. These programs offer both Convenience and Price advantages to individual customers. It is a true break-through innovation.

The Sam’s Club program provides a good illustration. Sam’s named this program eValues. This program offers bargains tailored to each Sam’s Club member. The member must be part of Sam’s Club “Plus” program. These “Plus” members may print out individually tailored eValues offers at a kiosk at the entrance to the store or by email or by visiting the Sam’s Club web site. Sam’s Club prepares these individualized offers by drawing on the purchasing history of the individual “Plus” members. Their purchasing history predicts what bargains and product combinations will attract the individual customer.

This eValues program is both a Convenience and a Price innovation. (See StrategyStreet.com/Diagnose/Products and Services/Customer Cost System) It is a Convenience innovation because it helps the customer find and choose products more quickly within the store. It is a Price innovation because it offers discounts on products the customer typically buys, or might buy. eValues is highly effective. The average coupon brings a response rate of 1% to 2%, but the eValues program results in customers getting the discount on 20% to 30% of the products where discounts are offered.

The stores’ loyalty programs become more relevant to their most important customers and the stores’ sales per customer visit increase. Clearly a win win situation.

A Pyrrhic Victory?

Wal-Mart stores and Costco Wholesale are disrupting markets again. The market they are disrupting today is the grocery industry. In truth, they have been disrupting the grocery industry for the last several years, to the point that Wal-Mart is now the largest grocery store company in the country. These two competitors drain their competition of their life blood by using low prices. The recession, along with the pressure applied by Wal-Mart and Costco, has reduced the consumer pricing index for food by nearly 3% over the last year.

So, what is an industry leader to do when faced with the Wal-Mart challenge? Kroger answered right away. The company reduced its prices along with those of Wal-Mart. (See “Audio Tip #180: The Real Low-Cost Competitor” on StrategyStreet.com.) The result is that Kroger expanded its market share. This growth in market share came at the expense of other industry leaders, such as Safeway and Supervalu, who did not cut their prices as deeply. (See the Symptom & Implication “As large competitors match low prices, other competitors face difficulties” on StrategyStreet.com.)

There is a rub, of course. Kroger’s margins declined in the face of the price deflation. Predictably, Wall Street pummeled Kroger’s stock.

Wall Street is wrong here. In the long term, the increase in Kroger’s size will enable it to reduce its cost structure compared to that of its smaller rivals. The easiest way to reduce a cost structure is when the company’s sales aren’t growing and you can find opportunities to improve the productivity of the cost structure by increasing efficiency and effectiveness. (See “Audio Tip #196: Why Economies of Scale Exist” on StrategyStreet.com.) It is much harder to reduce costs when the business is shrinking. In a shrinking business, company morale tends to be bad and companies almost inevitably cut muscle as well as fat.

A growing business will also allow Kroger to fine tune its value proposition in the face of the Wal-Mart price challenge. The customer buys Function, Reliability and Convenience before Price. Kroger’s ability to tailor its offerings for a broad swath of customers, and its local presence, are powerful advantages, even in the face of a competitor with lower prices. (See “Video #56: Design to Value as an Approach to Cost Management” on StrategyStreet.com.) Kroger is right.